In this article, we analyze some of the fastball metrics at the ages when athletes are being looked at or recruited. Keep in mind, parents/coaches who have a PG profile and grade have an idea their athlete(s) are top level. So we say "average fastball' with the caveat that they are average compared to other top level athletes and outliers. The assumption could be made that they are well above average in relation to ALL of youth baseball.
We retrieved the following data from the Perfect Game website from top level teams:
Ages to Track Progression (11-13u)
Class of 2026-70 MPH is in the 70th percentile
Class of 2026-82 MPH is in the 99th percentile
Class of 2026- 67 MPH is the average fastball
Class of 2025- 83 MPH is in the 99th percentile
Class of 2025-78 MPH is in 87th percentile
Class of 2025- 71 MPH is the average fastball
When It Really Matters(14u and 15u)
Class of 2024-88 MPH is in the 99 percentile
Class of 2024-75 mph is the average fastball
Class of 2023-89 MPH is in the 97 percentile
Class of 2023-81 MPH is the average fastball
There is a lot that can be gleaned from this data. The average fastball from class of 2025 to 2026 is 4 MPH faster. The average fastball from class of 2024 is 4 MPH faster than class of 2025. The average fastball from 2023 compared to 2024 is 6 MPH, which is the biggest jump in velocity(Freshman to Sophomore year). On average, for 3 years starting around 12 you can expect and aim for a 4.67 mph jump a year, however, this is not linear as many athletes will see a great jump in one year due to physical maturity/puberty.
There are kids throwing 82-83 mph in the classes of 2025 and 2026(more than the average fastball for the classes of 2023 and 2024). Do you think all of them are going to top out 88-90 MPH? No, Some have plateaued. Some could also have arm injuries from the high mileage at a young age. Others could very well keep progressing. Conversely, the late bloomers are also ones that cannot be quantified easily. The athlete throwing 65-70 at 13 could very well reach the 85 mark by 15. The athlete throwing 83 at 13-14 is likely already being monitored(not offered) by colleges. The athlete throwing 85 at 15-16 probably has offers rolling in.
What does this mean? Baseball players are already being offered, earlier and earlier. Some as early as the 8th/9th grade! At all ages, athlete promotion is becoming a huge aspect of youth sports. Please follow us on Twitter @playtbr to help promote your athlete! Also, if you are interested on our special special pricing on a Pocket Radar Smart Coach email us at firstname.lastname@example.org for a coupon code or shop at our store.